2008 December 25 Thursday.

2008dec25xmastree

Merry Christmas Everybody!!!

Meanwhile,.....

第200話  米国、ゼロ金利政策と量的緩和の採用(薄まるドル) ☆☆☆

前回の第199話にて、「海図のない航海、ゼロ金利に向かう?FRB」として米国がゼロ金利政策の採用に向かう可能性が高いこと、また既にリーマン・ブラザーズの破綻後の金融の混乱への対応策として、金利から通貨の供給量という政策の変更すなわち「量的緩和策」に実質的に乗り出しているとした。

「量的緩和策」とは簡単に表現するならば“紙幣を増刷し、ばら撒く”政策であり、為替市場の観点からすれば、究極の通貨安政策とした。すでに日本が2001年に採用した政策だが、日本の場合には、量的緩和策採用から約1年後の2002年2月に1ドル=135円台を記録したのが円の最安値だった。

しかし、そこをピークに2004年3月の110円割れまでむしろ円高が進んだ。

第199話では「なぜ、そこで止まったのか。それは日本が経常黒字国であり、対外債権国であるからではないか。

片や米国は、経常赤字国であり世界最大の対外債務国である。

ドルが基軸通貨であるということが、大きなメリットであり、それが歯止めになる可能性はあるが、仮に大赤字国が本格的な量的緩和策に乗り出すならば、日本円のような水準で果たして止まるのか否か」とした。

年末が迫った今月の16日。米国では2日にわたりFOMC(連邦公開市場委員会)が開かれ、利下げが行われた。

市場の大勢は0.5%の引き下げを予想したが実際には0.75%の大幅な引き下げとなった。

そればかりか、今回の引き下げは1%と過去最低に並んでいた金利水準を0%から0.25%にするという金利水準をゾーンで設定するという異例の政策決定となった。

中央銀行であるFRBが操作しているのは、銀行間の貸し借りの金利を意味するFFレート(フェデラル・ファンド・レート)だが、その目標金利にゼロ金利を含めたという点に今回の特徴がある。

すなわち米国の政策金利(中央銀行が操作する金利)は、名実共にゼロ%を正式に採用したことにより、下げ余地はなくなったことになる。

さらに今回のFOMCではその声明文にて「長期国債の買い入れの検討」をうたい、量的緩和策の導入を正式に決めたのも大きな特徴だった。

FRBはこれから(下げ余地のない)金利ではなく、(世の中に出回る)資金量で金融市場ひいては経済に影響を与えるという政策を採ることとなった。

これで11月の第199話で触れた環境が生まれることとなった。

果たしてこの決定が発表された直後から為替市場ではドルが売られた。

市場では米国の利下げを織り込む形で12月に入るとともに主要通貨に対しドル売りの流れが起きていたが、予想を上回る緩和策の発表に下げ幅が大きくなった。

特にドル円相場は急落状態(円急騰)となり1ドル87円13銭と1995年7月以来の円高水準を記録するに至った。

「量的緩和策」を別の方法で説明するならば、それは100%のジュースに水を足すようなイメージを浮かべていただければいいだろう。

当然ジュースは薄まる。90%、80%というふうに。このジュースの濃度の薄まりは通貨価値の薄まりを意味することになる。

極端に薄まるとこれは「マネー・インフレ」ということに至る。
「通貨の堕落」という言葉があるのだが、金融市場の、そして経済のカネ回りを良くするために金利の引き下げでは足りず、更に(印刷した)通貨を“ばら撒く”という政策は両刃の剣でもあるわけだ。

この“通貨を薄める政策”の導入に金市場は敏感に反応することになった。
政策の発表直後にはドル建て価格は今年の10月8日以来となる880ドル台の高値まで買い進まれたのである。

ドル建て金価格は、ドル相場との逆相関性を維持しており、2009年入り後もこの関係が続きそうだ。

足元でFRBが乗り出した政策は為替要因としてはドル安政策であり、机の上(理論上)ではドルの暴落をも思わせるものといえる。

ただし現実の相場はそれほど簡単なものではないだろう。

対抗馬たるユーロの存在も確かなものとは言えないためだ。

ユーロ圏経済も今回の一連の金融危機のなかで大きなダメージを受けており、更なる利下げ(金融緩和)が必要とされているのである。

年始早々にもECB(欧州中銀)は利下げに向かうと見られており、現在2%となっているユーロ圏の金利と米国の金利差は縮小が予想されている。

これはドルのサポート要因といえる。

ユーロ圏よりもさらに激しい景気の収縮に見舞われていると見られる英国の利下げも大きくなると見られており、年始早々、今度はヨーロッパでの利下げの度合いが注目点になっている。

その結果がまたドル建て金価格の方向性を左右することになる。

ちなみに、かかる環境の下で、ドル円相場の円高の波は終わっているとは思えず、年末年始を挟んでの更なる円高方向への動きも想定できる環境ではないかと思われる。

年始は1月2週のヨーロッパの金融政策の動きを踏まえながら、価格動向に触れたいと思います。

皆様、良い年をお迎えください。(12月25日記)


金融・貴金属アナリスト
亀井幸一郎

※本レポートは執筆者の個人的な見解を述べたものであり、
 実際の投資にあたってはお客様ご自身にてリスクをご判断ください。

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

人気ブログランキングへ

|

2008 November 11 Tuesday thru November 16 Sunday.

The G20 Summit held in Washington D.C.

20081116_g8groupphoto

This news even made the front page of the Hokkaido Newspaper complete with a photograph similar the one you can see on the left.

The main purpose of this summit was to solve the looming world financial crisis.

Even though they came up with some statements for the news media about how they are making progress to fix the problems, such as;   "We must lay the foundation for reform to help ensure that a global crisis, such as this one, does not happen again,"  they didn't tell the public what they are really planning to do.

I don't know much about the Bank of Japan, but I do know a little bit about the Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) of the USA. 

Therefore, I would like to share with my readers what little I do know about the FRB, and let them draw their own conclusions as to what will happen next.

Despite its governmental sounding name, the FRB is not a part of the Government of the United States of America. 

It is instead, a cartel of privately owned banking corporations, who have the power to tell the United States Treasury Department, how much money to print, and when to print it.

How did the FRB get started, and how did they get the power that they have now?

The FRB, also called the Federal Reserve System, was created in 1913 by the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act. 

This legislation was rushed through the United States Congress without proper debate on December 23, 1913 when many of the congressmen were not even in attendance, because they were at their homes for the Christmas Holidays.

Despite this incredible fact, President Woodrow Wilson signed the bill into law on the very same day!

The American public was told that the Federal Reserve System would prevent any more financial crisis, which had caused the great depressions in 1893 and 1907.

Now that a small group of private banks controlled the entire money supply of the United States, they rapidly increased the amount of money in circulation during the years 1914 thru 1919 until the money supply doubled, by making extensive loans to other smaller banks, which encouraged those smaller banks made extensive loans to the general public.

Then in 1920, the Federal Reserve began to call in its loans from the smaller banks, and the smaller banks in turn had to call in their loans from the general public. 

This caused the public whom had their life savings in the smaller banks, to rush to the bank and withdraw their money. 

Because the smaller banks didn't have all of that money on hand, many of them had to close their doors. 

In fact about 5,400 smaller banks went out of business during this time.  In other words, bankrupt. 

As a result, the Federal Reserve Bank bought all of these smaller banks at a very low price, further consolidating their monopoly on the banking business.

However, the financial panic of 1920 was just a warm up for what was to come next. 

During the years of 1921 thru 1929 the Federal Reserve again increased the money supply by more than 62% by giving loans the remaining smaller banks, which in turn gave out loans to the general public. 

There was also a new type of loan called a "Margin Loan" in the Stock Market.    Simply put, a margin loan is a loan to stock market investors, whereby the investor can buy, say,  $1000 worth of stock with a payment of only $100 down. 

The stock broker would cover the other 90% of the value of the stock.    This margin loan system works very well, as long as stock prices continue to rise, and it created many new millionaires.   

In fact, this era in U.S. History is remembered as The Roaring Twenties.

Unfortunately, a margin loan can be called in at any time and must be paid off within 24 hours.   

This is know as a "Margin Call".  The party ended on October 24, 1929 when the biggest investors in the stock market, the big bankers, quietly started selling most all of their stocks. 

This forced the stock brokers to make massive margin calls, in order to get the money needed pay the big investors their money, for the stocks which they had just sold.   What happened to the small investors?   

They lost everything they had, and went deeply into debt at the same time. 

Many people committed suicide as a result of this deliberate market manipulation.   This time about 16,000 smaller banks went out of business.

What followed next was the Great Depression of the 1930s. 

Only World War II and The New Deal by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, both of them financed by the International Banking Cartel which drastically increased the money supply again, ended the great depression.

Fast forward to 2008 and the Sub Prime Housing Loan Crisis.

Banks have been lending massive amounts of money to people, so that they could buy houses with no money down and at very low starting interest rates. 

So, many many people who really couldn't afford it, signed housing loan contracts, and bought new houses. 

The catch, is that the mortgage interest rates became adjustable after the first one or two years. 

In other words, what started out as house payments of say $400 per month, suddenly became house payments of $700, $800 and more per month. 

Because most peoples' income did not increase by the same amount, they could no longer afford to pay their mortgages, and had to move out of their new homes.

Sounds a lot like a Margin Call, doesn't it.

Not only that, but the financial markets started to buy up these bad mortgages, and repackage them together into what appeared to be investment grade products, and sell them on the stock market. 

Now, as stock prices continue to fall, the Federal Reserve continues to print more and more paper money, to bailout Wall Street and now the Big Automobile Makers, and maybe the Airline Industry is next in line to get FREE MONEY. 

Money printed out of thin air, with nothing of value behind it. 

This creates INFLATION, a rise in prices of everything, and if the FRB continues print more paper money, HYPER-INFLATION.

In reality, the VALUE of commodities is not going up, instead, the value of the U.S. Dollar paper money is going down.

What do you think is going to happen next?   Put on your thinking caps, and fasten your seat belts.  It's going to be a rough ride.

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

人気ブログランキングへ

|

2008 July 7 Monday thru July 11 Friday.

2008jul07_g8_flagshokkaidologo1

The WORLD comes to Hokkaido.   

What a nightmare for the traffic cops.   

I stayed far away from all of the hoop-la, and didn't leave Asahikawa.   

I had already scoped out the Windsor Hotel Lake Toya, during Golden Week of 2007 on May 12.   

Click here to read the details

Unfortunately for the World Leaders and their entourages, the weather at Lake Toya this year on July 7, 8 and 9, was not the best.   

From Live News Broadcasts, I could see that it was very overcast and dark.   

Not the best way to remember this beautiful island of Hokkaido.   

When it is clear and sunny, Lake Toya is absolutely stunning in its own natural beauty.   

The Windsor Hotel has the best view, because it is located on the highest hill, that surrounds the lake itself.   

A Magnificent View from the top.   

Will this 34th G8 Summit be remembered as the 3 days which rocked Hokkaido?   

Hmmmm,... I wonder.    I will be here as usual, 365/24/7  waiting for yet another sunny day, and visiting  the Windsor Hotel again, in the very near future.    

By the way, a word about the Annual G8 Summits, in general.   

Every year, this is a big media event, and that is about all that it is.   

Nothing of real importance is decided at the G8 Summits.   

All of the really serious issues about how the world will be managed in the near and not so distant future, is decided at the Annual Bilderberg  Summit that is held every year BEFORE the G8 Summit.   

What does that tell you?   

Exactly!    Everything that is really really really important, has already been decided before the annual G8 summit even starts.   

Therefore, the top of the top in the Governments of the BIG 8, can relax and talk about family and friends and favorite memories and, etc.    

Consider the G8 Summit to be a very short summer vacation in some far and distant land for all the government leaders of the first world countries.   

The only disappointment I have about the whole affair this year, was the lousy weather that G. W. Bush and Family, had to suffer through during their very brief visit to Hokkaido.   

They arrived in Hokkaido, and left from Hokkaido aboard Air Force One, at Chitose Air Base.   

I know that somebody somewhere in Hokkaido, was there on those days to take photos of Air Force One coming into and going out of Chitose Air Base.   

I wish I could see those photos.   

That would be an excellent adventure, in and of itself. 

If you have some, please e-mail me at snowmanjapan@live.jp    

Thanx again!!!

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

|

2007 October 12 Friday.

Oh!  What a surprise!   

Al Gore gets the NOBEL PRIZE for his diligent efforts to inform the unwashed masses as to the real causes of GLOBAL WARMING.   

I almost fell out of my chair laughing, when I saw this news on JNN NewsBird this afternoon.   

Say what?!?   

The timing couldn't have been better.   

One year away from presidential "elections", and good old Al Gore, is suddenly back into the mainstream news, AND in a very big way.   

Could this be the big reward to Big Al, for having been screwed out of the 2000 presidential elections by taking a fall, for the hanging chad masters?      

What a farce that was.      And so is this.      

Human beings are the main cause of global warming.   

Bullxit.   The cycles of the SUN are the MAIN CAUSE of global warming.   

Always have been.   

True, the activities of human beings are partly responsible for the emissions of "green house gases" into the earth's atmosphere, but it is not the individual family units who are putting out most of this unnecessary air pollution.   

It is the Military Industrial Complex Matrix of Participants, that are the main culprit.   

The mass media tells us that we all have to conserve energy, and drive more energy efficient cars and cut back on our consumption of electricity. 

Meanwhile, the big industries which make the war machines, and the military which drives and flies the big war machines, is pumping out a billion times more, of the same gases into the atmosphere.   

They are trying to shift the blame onto us, the common folk.   

Phuck them!    

TMIC does much more damage to the environment of this planet than any other group of people who also must live on this planet, by far.   

HOWEVER,  even with all of their extravagantly wasteful use of energy resources of all kinds, their effect on global warming is still miniscule, as compared to the CYCLES OF THE SUN, which produces SUN SPOTS and SOLAR FLARES and SOLAR WINDS.    

This is the REAL REASON why the EARTH is getting warmer and warmer during this part of the solar cycles.   

Not only do we have scientific data from the past several hundred years, clearly showing the direct relationship between the 11 and 22 year sun cycles and temperature variations, upon the surface of the earth, but we also have archeological evidence from thousands and thousands of years ago, that prove the same thing.   

What am I talking about?   

Well for one thing, the JOMON People who lived here in Hokkaido, and  also in many other parts of Japan, left behind the remnants of villages and graveyards.   

One very specific example that I would like to mention in particular, are two such places that I have visited right here in Hokkaido, just this year.   

One of them is in Date City 伊達市 and the other one is in Minami Kayabe Village 南茅部村, both sites are situated along the Pacific Ocean coastline, and both are about 5,000 to 6,000 years old.   

Nowadays, these sites are rather far away from the shoreline of the ocean, but back then during the era when the Jomon People were living there, the water levels of the oceans were much higher than they are today.   

How do I know this for sure?   

Archeologists have found millions and millions of seashell FOSSILS in the ground, in areas which are now farmland.   In other words, the farmlands along the Pacific Ocean Coast of Hokkaido today, WAS the OCEAN FLOOR thousands and thousands of years ago!   

Let's see, 6,000 years ago, there were no huge factories pumping out green house gases, nor were there any petroleum burning cars, buses nor airplanes.   

Well,........     Geeez Louize, if there were no human causes to global warming way back then,.....     What was the cause?    SOLAR CYCLES.       

What else could there be, besides the eruption of volcanoes and meteor strikes?   

You and I are NOT THE CAUSE of global warming.   

Don't let these asshole,  powers that be,  convince you that you are the main cause of GLOBAL WARMING.    

It is not YOUR fault.  It is a total scam.   

A scam worthy of the NOBEL PRIZE.   

Top that one for a bad joke, IF you can. 

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

|

2007 September 13 Thursday.

Yesterday at about 13:20, as I was getting back into my van for the return drive  home, after listening to an excellent Jazz Concert by 和島京都, I turned the key in the ignition and the radio came on automatically.   

What I heard on the radio, was the news that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will be resigning from his office, in the very near future.   

At first I couldn't believe my ears, and I said out loud, in a very  loud voice; "Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat???"   

But as I continued to listen to the NHK broadcast, I was able to reconfirm  that my hearing is still OK.   

What a shocker.   

I receive the Prime Minister's weekly email newsletter on Thursdays, and you can see for yourself what Mr. Abe has to say about his reasons for resignation by clicking here.   

Shortly thereafter, he checked into a hospital complaining of intestinal discomfort, and lack of appetite.   

Yes, the word RESIGNATION has many shades of meaning.   

Not just  political, but psychological and many other nuances, as well.   

Do you remember how you reacted, when you became extremely disappointed by some event or events in your own life?   

I do, and very very clearly.   

In one such instance which happened to me, more than 15 years ago, I got a telephone call from someone in the USA, and after a brief and very heated conversation, I hung up the phone and sat down, fuming about it from deep inside.   

Less that thirty seconds after sitting down, I quickly got up again, ran to the toilet, and had a huge attack of instant diarrhea 下痢.   

Yes, sticks and stones can break your bones, BUT WORDS CAN HIT YOU HARDER.   

Thank you for doing your best to maintain Japan as a truly forward looking, and peaceful country in this crazy world of today, Mr. Abe.    

And please get well soon.  You've got a lot more living to do.    

It is difficult to fly like an EAGLE, when you are surrounded by TURKEYS.   

Think GLOBALLY, act LOCALLY.      

Don't let a CLOWN become the new international representative of Japan on the WORLD STAGE.   

We need to maintain the LION HEART, and vanquish all of the pussies.   

This game is for professionals only.   

No BOZOs allowed on this bus.

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

|

2007 June 7 Thursday.

Every Thursday, I get an email magazine from the Office of the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr. Shinzo Abe.   

As you already know, Mr. Abe is now in Germany at this year's G8 Summit.   

This of course was mentioned in his most recent newsletter which I received today.   

Another link that was also included in this week's email magazine, leads to a video in English about next summer's G8 Summit at Lake Toya, right here in beautiful Hokkaido.   

To see the 8 minute video click here.   

This video is very well made, and does an excellent job of introducing the basic miracles of Mother Nature that this dragon head shaped island has in abundance. 

I know this for a fact because I have been to almost every region of this blessed land.   

Even if I go to a certain location over and over again, I still find something new and enlightening there, each and every time I go.   

I am often asked by my students; "Which place in Hokkaido do you like the best?" 

My answer is always the same;  "That depends upon what I want to do on that day.   

If I want to go swimming in the ocean, I have many favorite places along the very long coastline of Hokkaido.   

If I want to go camping right next to a lake, I have many favorite locations that I know well, and can get to with ease.   

If I want to soak in a 100% natural hot tub, in the middle of nowhere, I know a lot of really excellent places to do exactly that."   

It is never about "money".   

It is only about how much time I have to take. 

Is it the short drive or a long drive, to and from that location, and how much time do I have to spend when I get there, during this relaxing journey.   

Those realities are all I need to consider when thinking about going anywhere within Hokkaido.   

Living in Asahikawa means that you live in the VIRTUAL CENTER of HOKKAIDO.   

This means that I can drive my Toyota NOAH to any place on this island within 6, 7 or maybe even 8 hours.    

I am talking about the not so far away places on land that touch the sea, on any side.   

Anyway, with all things considered for today, I only have enough time to take a walk along the river banks in the Kagura District of Asahikawa.   

That will be nice.   

Same as it always IS.  SAME as it ever was.

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

|

2007 April 27 Friday.

My first gig of the day was at the Dokan Nursing School starting at 9:00. 

Today, I divided the class into groups of 3 students and we used page one of my original textbook, Questions and Answers.   

With one student absent today, the way the groups divided up left me paired with the only boy in this half of the class and we did the print together.   

Just the two of us. 

During the course of our discussions, I was surprised to learn that he lives rather far away from this school, and has to take the train everyday in order to commute to this nursing school.   

He told me that he rides the train for 90 minutes in the morning, and then again for 90 minutes in the evening, a total of 3 hours every school day. 

That sounds more like a salary man working in Tokyo and living in some small suburban bed town near the big city, than it does a student living alone, away from home, for the very FIRST TIME.   

Why this young man does not live in an apartment or at a  dormitory which is much closer to this school, I do not know.   

After that class was finished at 10:30, I took a taxi back to my classroom and got ready for straight lessons from 15:00 until 20:00.   

After that I wanted to go for a walk, but the weather was rather nasty, and it killed my meager motivation to meander beneath the night sky.   

Instead, I spent some time reading about next year's G8 summit which will HAPPEN right here in Hokkaido.   

I even took the liberty of using a photo from the front page of the Hokkaido Newspaper, which shows Prime Minister Abe meeting G. W. Bush in the USA.   

Mr. Abe's next stops will be in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and other destinations.   

The written dialogue between the two national leaders, that I added to the photo of a photo,  are of course, a complete fabrication by me, but wouldn't it be nice if something like this had actually been said between the two distinguished gentlemen.   

I  DO KNOW  for a fact that President Bush is much too busy to read this blog or even look at this website, but some of his supporters may not be too busy, and therefore MAY  DO SO.   

Also, I am only assuming that President Bush has never visited Hokkaido, because I can not recall any mass media news reports to the contrary.   

I think President Bush will REALLY like what he sees when he stops by to TAKE A LOOK in here, HOKKAIDO, next summer.   

Welcome to the dragon head of East Asia Mr. President.   

I hope that Laura and the daughters can come along as well.   

I know you'all will really like it here in Nature Base Hokkaido.   

Lots of LOVE,  from HOKKAIDO to TEXAS.   

This place kicks ass.      

I KNOW IT 4 a FACT.    Norman D.

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

|

2007 April 26 Thursday.

A cold, windy and rainy day. 

Not much to talk about except the newspaper headline on the left.   

This is a photo of the evening edition of the Hokkaido Newspaper for Monday, April 23.  It says; "2008 G8 SUMMIT to be held at the Windsor Resort Hotel at Lake Toya in HOKKAIDO.   

Why do I always have this certain feeling, that things for Hokkaido are coming together BIG TIME.   

Now, I see it again in the mass media. 

My wife, her mother and I were just in this area last summer, and in fact we stayed one night at the 湖畔亭 Hotel which is right on the shore of this beautiful lake. 

As you can see from the photograph within the photograph on the upper/left, The Windsor Resort Hotel is high on a hill overlooking the beautiful horizons of Hokkaido.   

This facility was originally built during the Japan Bubble Economy and was initially called the APEX Resort Hotel.   

As with all bubbles, that look pretty on the outside, but have nothing except hot air inside of them, it went BOOM and BUST, and the building sat there, unused for many years. 

Until recently.   

Not only is this an exquisitely beautiful place, but there is only one road up to the top of this mountain where the hotel sits at the apex.   

This of course is a dream come true for security personnel who will be  responsible for protecting these big wig actors on the world stage. 

For a preliminary list as to who will be attending the G8 Summit at Lake Toya during the summer of 2008, click here.

********************************

☆人気ブログランキング☆
明日もほんわか~と更新します。

応援のクリックお願いします。励みに頑張ります♪

|